Abstract
AbstractWeather radars are capable of detecting and displaying storm‐related turbulence as well as precipitation rate with fine spatial resolution and reliable quality. Especially, weather radars can enable the detection of atmospheric conditions in the vicinity of cities and thereby help to notify the strong winds. This article investigates the application of weather radar measurements for predicting strong wind and presents a new method for very short‐term storm prediction. In the proposed method, hidden Markov model (HMM) is used to classify atmospheric conditions to “potentially stormy” and “non‐stormy” states using the available radar data, and semi‐Markov theory is used to estimate the probability of storm occurrence with time. In fact, the probability of transition between “potentially stormy,” “non‐stormy,” and “stormy” states is modeled by a semi‐Markov model, to find the unconditional probability of storm occurrence with time. The model is implemented with the use of the data of Tehran C‐band weather radar and anemometer of Tehran international airport. Verification results show that the precision (forecast accuracy) is around 0.19 and the recall is around 0.67 in the presented classification method.
Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
