Abstract
Reservoirs in Taiwan often provide hydroelectric power, irrigation water, municipal water, and flood control for the whole year. Taiwan has the climatic characteristics of concentrated rainy seasons, instantaneous heavy rains due to typhoons and rainy seasons. In addition, steep rivers in mountainous areas flow fast and furiously. Under such circumstances, reservoirs have to face sudden heavy rainfall and surges in water levels within a short period of time, which often causes the water level to continue to rise to the full level even though hydroelectric units are operating at full capacity, and as reservoirs can only drain the flood water, this results in the waste of hydropower resources. In recent years, the impact of climate change has caused extreme weather events to occur more frequently, increasing the need for flood control, and the reservoir operation has faced severe challenges in order to fulfil its multipurpose requirements. Therefore, in order to avoid the waste of hydropower resources and improve the effectiveness of the reservoir operation, this paper proposes a real-time 48-h ahead water level forecasting system, based on fuzzy neural networks with multi-stage architecture. The proposed multi-stage architecture provides reservoir inflow estimation, 48-h ahead reservoir inflow forecasting, and 48-h ahead water level forecasting. The proposed method has been implemented at the Techi hydropower plant in Taiwan. Experimental results show that the proposed method can effectively increase energy efficiency and allow the reservoir water resources to be fully utilized. In addition, the proposed method can improve the effectiveness of the hydropower plant, especially when rain is heavy.
Highlights
Hydropower is a clean and non-exhaustive energy source, and it is relatively more stable than other renewable energies, such as solar and wind energy
As the water level changes significantly in the rainy season, this paper evaluates the accuracy of the forecasting performance by observing events with reservoir inflow greater than 100 cubic meters per second (CMS)
Power Plant is critical to the power generation, and downstream water supply of power plants in the entire Dajiaxi River Basin, and its importance is beyond words
Summary
Hydropower is a clean and non-exhaustive energy source, and it is relatively more stable than other renewable energies, such as solar and wind energy. As the operation of the hydroelectric units can start and stop instantly, it provides flexibility for operation. It can adjust the voltage and frequency of a power system with the instantaneous change of the load and has always played an essential role in ensuring the safety of power supply and maintaining the quality of power. There are many studies on hydroelectric power generation and the integration of other renewable energy sources. The authors of [10] proposed a model-based approach for assessing the impact of climate change on hydropower potential in the Nanliujiang River basin of China
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