Abstract
Accurate prediction of the transport and dispersion of atmospheric pollutants and tracers in complex terrain represents a significant research challenge. The differences between simulations and measurements are caused by model simplifications and assumptions, uncertainty in measurements, and variability of natural processes that have a random component. The uncertainties in the model and measurements could be reduced to certain extent, while the natural variability cannot be fully accounted for. In this study, we present a method of estimating uncertainties in the simulated dispersion as a residual term in the equation for the fractional error.
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