A Method in Regression Equations for Forecasting the Movement of Typhoons

Abstract

Based on six years (1950 through 1955) of typhoon data, three equations are formulated for the purpose of forecasting the movement of typhoons. In these equations, the following criteria at the 700-mb level are accounted for:(1) the contour height and its tendency at a point 10 deg of lat north of the typhoon center,(2) the contour height and its tendency at a point 10 deg of lat from the typhoon center and 90 deg to the right of its direction of motion,(3) the contour height and its tendency at a point 10 deg of lat from the typhoon center and 90 deg to the left of its direction of motion, and(4) the intensity and orientation of the major axis of a subtropical high cell which plays the role of steering the movement of the typhoon. Typhoon data collected during the years 1956 through 1958 are used for verification. With use of these equations, results of forecasting a 24-hr typhoon movement are found to be of practical value.