A Method for Spatially Explicit Assessment of Potential Risks of Food Insecurity

Abstract

This paper presented an approach of combining together the biophysical, social and economic factors for spatially explicit assessment of potential risks of food insecurity. Two indicators, i.e., per capita food availability and per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP), were used here to cover the four dimensions of food security, with the former representing the status of food availability and stability and the latter reflecting the situation of food accessibility and affordability. These two indicators were then linked to an integrated modeling framework in a loose coupling method. This proposed approach was applied to assess potential future risks of food insecurity at a global scale over a period of approximately 20 years, starting with the year 2000. The results show that both changes in per capita food availability and changes in per capita GDP during 2000–2020 vary across regions worldwide. Some regions such as China, most eastern European countries and most southern American countries where there is an increase in per capita food availability or an increase in the capacity to import food between 2000 and 2020 might be able to improve their food security situation. On the contrary, certain regions such as southern Asian countries and most African countries will likely remain hotspots of food insecurity in the future. In these regions, both the per capita food availability and the capacity of being able to import food will decrease between 2000 and 2020, thus more efforts are needed to combat hunger in terms of future actions. Although most developed countries will also experience both a decrease in per capita per capita food availability and a decrease in per capita GDP, these countries are likely to be food-secure due to their higher income and purchasing power, as well as the substantial adaptive capacity and proactive food management systems.