A method for risk analysis of ship collisions with stationary infrastructure using AIS data and a ship manoeuvring simulator

Axel Hörteborn,Jonas W Ringsberg

doi:10.1016/j.oceaneng.2021.109396

Axel Hörteborn, Jonas W Ringsberg

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2021.109396

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Abstract

The study presents a methodology that uses AIS data and a ship manoeuvring simulator to simulate and analyse marine traffic schemes with regard to risks for accidents. An event identification method is presented, which is needed for the accident scenario part of the methodology. This is based on AIS data, where the Great Belt VTS area was used to verify the methodology. Three events that could result in ship-bridge allisions were modelled and simulated in the simulator: drifting ship, sharp turning ship and miss of turning point. The Monte Carlo method was used to perform large number of simulator runs, including a parameter sensitivity analysis. The probability of a ship allision against the Great Belt Bridge was calculated to be 0.007. Analysis of the ship-bridge allision cases was shown to be dominated by the event drifting ship. This event has a relatively low kinetic energy at the impact, and the expected allision energy for a 1,000-year allision corresponds to a 178 m tanker with 57,870 DWT and ship speed 14.6 knots. Finally, this study presents a mitigation analysis, which shows how the probability of allisions can be reduced by reducing the ship speed or altering the traffic separation scheme.

Highlights

The advancement in bridge building engineering during the 20th century created an opportunity to build large bridges that span over wide waterways with intensive ship traffic
The number of simulations needed in the set was determined by a criterion defined in this study stating that the difference in allision energy between the simulation sets should not differ more than five percent
The study presented a methodology using AIS data, a ship manoeu vring simulator and the Monte Carlo method to calculate the accident probabilities in marine traffic near bridges spanning over wide water ways

Summary

Introduction

The advancement in bridge building engineering during the 20th century created an opportunity to build large bridges that span over wide waterways with intensive ship traffic. Risk analysis was used as the method to ensure that the bridge design and waterway traffic fulfilled expected safety standards. In addition to envi ronmental and service loads that form the basis of the strength design of a bridge spanning over a waterway, the accidental probability of various hazardous events and accidental loads must be considered. In Eurocode 1, general equations are pro posed for the calculation of accidental loads to be used in the design of bridges (CEN, 2006). For ship-bridge allisions, these equations are based on Eq (1) with reference to the research presented by Fujii (1983) and Macduff (1974): NAl = N × PC (1)

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