A Method for Predicting the Remaining Service Life of Finite Data Products Based on Gaussian Stochastic Processes

Abstract

There is a problem of poor predictive performance when predicting the remaining service life of products. Therefore, this paper proposes a finite data product remaining service life prediction method based on Gaussian stochastic processes. Analyze the types of product failure and degradation under limited data, and determine the factors affecting the degradation performance of product life through constant stress accelerated degradation tests, step stress accelerated degradation tests, and sequential stress accelerated aging tests; using the Wiener process to analyze the performance degradation characteristics of products, setting product failure thresholds, defining the remaining life of the product based on the degradation process, and using equal interval partitioning methods to determine the product health index, and clarifying the product failure process under limited data; by calculating the mathematical expected value, the numerical characteristics of the remaining life of the product are defined. Variance and moments are used to determine the predicted second-order central moment and origin moment. Based on the monotonic increasing characteristics of the inverse Gaussian process, the probability distribution of the random variable of product failure is determined after the Gaussian process. Under limited data, the actual working time of the product and the degradation amount at the time scale are clarified, and a preset threshold is set for the degradation amount. Build a residual life prediction model for product degradation and output the prediction results. The experimental results show that this method can accurately predict the remaining service life of the product and has good predictive performance.