Abstract
The fatigue life of mechanical element is a random variable in nature following some kind of statistical distribution. In this paper, a method for reliability life prediction considering life randomness is proposed. Firstly, the Smith-Watson-Topper (SWT) model is used to describe the relationship of the maximum normal stress and strain range on the critical plane. Secondly, the maximum normal stress and strain range on the critical plane are calculated by finite element analysis. Thirdly, fatigue life samples are generated using Monte Carlo simulation method, and the mixed Weibull distribution is used to model the distribution of fatigue life of turbine discs. Finally, the proposed method is validated by comparing the prediction results from the proposed method, the observed cumulative failure probability based on median rank, and the standard two-parameter Weibull distribution.
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