Abstract
It is apparent from the literature on health programs that attempts to estimate the manpower necessary to give current and future health services to the American people are of major interest and primary importance. Special study commissions, the press, and the general public have all participated in discussions of the numerical needs for physicians, dentists, nurses, and health personnel. VARIATIONS IN ESTIMATES From most of the available reports one gets the impression that there is a serious shortage of physicians and that the medical schools and health institutions have been remiss in training an adequate supply for the future needs of the country. Some authorities, however, have ventured to estimate a surplus rather than a shortage. There are extremely wide differences in numerical estimates of need. For example, physician manpower estimates vary from a surplus of 6,000 by 1960 to a shortage of 61,000 (see table). The differences in the
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