Abstract
In current fire probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) for nuclear power plants in the United States, fires due to transient combustibles are one of the top contributors to calculated plant risk. This does not comport with industry experience on the severity of transient fires. A two-phase project was developed to improve the realism of modeling transient fires in PRAs. In the summer of 2018, a large fire testing program was executed to test 99 fuel packages representative of transient combustibles in nuclear power plants. This paper develops a method to weight the test results using operational experience in the form of a fire events database maintained by the Electric Power Research Institute. The weighted test results were used to create probabilistic distributions of heat release rate, total energy release, and zone of influence (maximum distance for causing target damage). Additionally, the weighted test results were used to develop a generic approach for modeling the time-dependent behavior of a transient fire.
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