A method for imprecision management in complex product development

Abstract

Managing uncertainty levels is important for organizations carrying out complex product development processes since it fosters design process improvements and optimization. Among the different uncertainties, design imprecision is known to represent uncertainty in decision-making that typically triggers changes to the value assigned to design variables during the early stages of the development process. This paper presents a method aiming to support large organizations understanding, quantifying and communicating this type of uncertainty. The imprecision management method that is proposed relies on five main steps: collection of historical records of change, time evolution reconstruction, statistical characterization of the typical levels of imprecision that should be expected, communication to new projects and continuous knowledge update. In addition, we present results from a case-study performed at Rolls–Royce that tested the method’s applicability in practice. The study shed light to interesting empirical findings about the typical level of imprecision in design variables and its evolution during real product development projects. The results from this initial evaluation suggest that the method provides useful support for design process management and thus has industrial value.