A Method for Identifying the Dominant Meteorological Factors of Atmospheric Evaporative Demand in Mid‐Long Term

Abstract

AbstractTo better understand the changes in the atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) in the context of global warming, the anomaly contribution analysis is presented to estimate mid‐long term contributions of meteorological factors to the AED. The Pearson correlation coefficient (RP) between the total contribution (ψ) of meteorological factors and the relative variation (ϕ) of the AED, and the Sen's trend slope (βS) of (ϕ, ψ) scatters are used to evaluate the applicability of the method. The smaller the values of |1 − RP| and |1 − βS|, the more applicable the method is. To validate the method, the reference crop evapotranspiration is employed as a proxy for the AED. The multi‐year contribution analysis is used as a comparison approach, which can only investigate the dominant meteorological factors of the AED in long term. Moreover, the Huaihe River basin of China is taken as a case study. Results show that (a) the values of |1 − RP| and |1 − βS| in mid‐long term are less than 0.1 in most cases when applying the anomaly contribution analysis, and the mid‐long term contribution processes of meteorological factors to the AED are clearly demonstrated; and (b) the wind speed and sunshine hours are the two most dominant factors (the total absolute contribution exceeds 60%) in long term, but they are not always the dominant factors in mid‐long term (e.g., wind speed in summer, and sunshine hours in winter). Therefore, the anomaly contribution analysis is a reasonable and effective method, which can help to gain insights into the changes in the AED.