Abstract
A methodology for estimating the potential predictability of seasonal mean climate variables where the daily data consist of dichotomous (on/off) events, such as precipitation, is described and applied to Western Australian rainfall for the period 1951--2000. The method relies on determining an estimate for the intermonth correlations for precipitation and utilizes a stochastic, two state, first order, Markov chain model fitted to the daily data. References W. Feller. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications . Vol. 2. John Wiley and Sons, 626pp, 1966. C. S. Frederiksen and X. Zheng. Coherent Structures of Interannual Variability of the Atmospheric Circulation: The Role of Intraseasonal Variability. Frontiers in Turbulence and Coherent Structures, World Scientific Lecture Notes in Complex Systems , Vol. 6, Eds Jim Denier and Jorgen Frederiksen, World Scientific Publications, 87--120, 2007. D. A. Jones and G. Weymouth. An Australian monthly rainfall data set. Technical Report No. 70 , Bur. Met. Australia, 1997. R. W. Katz and X. Zheng. Mixture Model For Overdispersion of Precipitation. J. Climate , 12:2528--2537, 2.0.CO;2>doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012 2.0.CO;2 , 1999. E. N. Lorenz. On the existence of extended range predictability. J. Appl. Meteor. , 12:543--546, 2.0.CO;2>doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1973)012 2.0.CO;2 , 1973. R. A. Madden, D. J. Shea, R. W. Katz and J. W. Kidson. The potential long-range predictability of precipitation over New Zealand. Int. J. Clim. , 19:405--421, http://ejournals.ebsco.com/direct.asp?ArticleID=UWLQUYU54E2X7BYBW3DT , 1999. D. S. Wilks. Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. (second edition). Academic Press, 627pp, 2006. X. Zheng and C. S. Frederiksen. A study of predictable patterns for seasonal forecasting of New Zealand rainfall. J. Climate , 19:3320--3333, doi:10.1175/JCLI3798.1 , 2006. X. Zheng, H. Nakamura and J. A. Renwick. Potential predictability of seasonal means based on monthly time series of meteorological variables. J. Climate , 13:2591--2604, 2.0.CO;2>doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013 2.0.CO;2 , 2000.
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