A Method for Estimating the Deposition Density of Fallout on the Ground and on Vegetation from a Low-yield, Low-altitude Nuclear Detonation.

Abstract

This paper describes a relatively simple model developed from observations of local fallout from US and USSR nuclear tests that allows reasonable estimates to be made of the deposition density (activity per unit area) on both the ground and on vegetation for each radionuclide of interest produced in a nuclear fission detonation as a function of location and time after the explosion. In addition to accounting for decay rate and in-growth of radionuclides, the model accounts for the fractionation (modification of the relative activity of various fission and activation products in fallout relative to that produced in the explosion) that results from differences in the condensation temperatures of the various fission and activation products produced in the explosion. The proposed methodology can be used to estimate the deposition density of all fallout radionuclides produced in a low yield, low altitude fission detonation that contribute significantly to dose. The method requires only data from post-detonation measurements of exposure rate (or beta or a specific nuclide activity) and fallout time-of-arrival. These deposition-density estimates allow retrospective as well as rapid prospective estimates to be made of both external and internal radiation exposure to downwind populations living within a few hundred kilometers of ground zero, as described in the companion papers in this volume.