Abstract
The issue of economic security is becoming an increasingly urgent one. The purpose of this article is to develop a method for assessing threats to the economic security of the Russian region. This method is based on step-by-step actions: first of all, choosing an element of the region’s economic security system and collecting its descriptive indicators; then grouping indicators by admittance-process-result categories and building hypotheses about their influence; testing hypotheses using a statistical package and choosing the most significant connections, which can pose a threat to the economic security of the region; thereafter ranking regions by the level of threats and developing further recommendations. The importance of this method is that with the help of grouping regions (territory of a country) based on proposed method, it is possible to develop individual economic security monitoring tools. As a result, the efficiency of that country’s region can be higher. In this work, the proposed method was tested in the framework of public procurement in Russia. A total of 14 indicators of procurement activity were collected for each region of the Russian Federation for the period from 2014 to 2018. Regression models were built on the basis of the grouped indicators. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) Estimation was used. As a result of pairwise regression models analysis, we have defined four significant relationships between public procurement indicators. There are positive connections between contracts that require collateral and the percentage of tolerances, between the number of bidders and the number of regular suppliers, between the number of bidders and the average price drop, and between the number of purchases made from a single supplier and the number of contracts concluded without reduction. It was determined that the greatest risks for the system were associated with the connection between competition and budget savings. It was proposed to rank analyzed regions into four groups: ineffective government procurement, effective government procurement, and government procurement that threatens the system of economic security of the region, that is, high competition with low savings and low competition with high savings. Based on these groups, individual economic security monitoring tools can be developed for each region.
Highlights
This work focuses on public procurement, which is one of the most important elements of the system of economic security of a region (Grandia and Kruyen 2020; Jacobson 2000)
The collection of descriptive indicators on public procurement in the regions occurred via the Tenderplan analytical platform
We considered the development trend in the regions of the Russian Federation (RF) in terms of the relationship between competition and economy in the period from 2014 to 2018 (Table 5)
Summary
Economic security is a national security issue. The economic security of any state is affected by the economic security of all its states, regions, and districts. The economic security of a state defines the stability and progressive development of the economy of this territory (Kahler 2004; Gryshova et al 2020; Feofilova 2013; Gutman et al 2018; Uspenskij et al 2019). The economic security of a region determines the current state, conditions and factors that directly contribute to or oppose this development (Hacker et al 2013; Feofilova et al 2018). Economic security is seen as an endogenous factor of regional development and of the ability of the region as a system to achieve targets with
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