A Method for Assessing Threats for Critical Infrastructure Objects on the Example of an Enemy’s Attack on the Sludge Storage Facilities of the Avdiivka Coke Chemical Plant

Abstract


 
 
 The difficult situation in eastern Ukraine has made the problem of assessing potential man-made threats more urgent. Among the many industrial enterprises that suffered damage as a result of hostilities, the most environmentally hazardous ones were identified, namely: Yasinivka, Avdiivka, and Yenakiieve coke-chemical plants; Yenakiieve, Makiiivka, and Donetsk metallurgical plants; Alchevsk metallurgical plant; Lysychansk oil refinery; Donetsk state chemical plant; Sloviansk, Luhansk, Vuhlehirsk, and Myronivka thermal power plants; chemical industry enterprises such as Severodonetsk Azot plant and Horlivka Styrol plant. The work proposes a method for assessing threats to critical infrastructure objects from enemy attacks. By applying graph theory and probability theory, the proposed method allows for obtaining quantitative assessments of threats and analyzing possible scenarios to develop cascading effects of emergencies. This helps determine the potential consequences of an attack and evaluate the risks associated with damaging critical infrastructure. The proposed model is based on a structural-logical approach that considers the inter- relationships between different components of the natural-technological geosystem. It will enable obtaining more objective and reliable results when assessing potential military-technological threats to CIOs and analyzing possible cascading effects in the event of damage to these objects. Developing such a model is essential in improving the approaches to assessing threats to CIOs, providing more accu- rate forecasts, and effective risk management. The results of this research can be useful for practical applications in developing strate- gies for the security of CIOs in the context of armed conflict. The results obtained in this work can be useful in developing models for assessing ecological and technological threats to critical infrastructure objects, particularly in the context of military operations. This method will improve the level of protection and help develop effective strategies to counter potential threats to critical infrastructure.