A Method for Assessing the Risk of Accidents in 10/0.4-kV Electrical Networks

Abstract

То improve the conditions of interdistrict 10/0.4-kV electrical networks, their condition was assessed according to such criteria as risk of electrical networks, risk assessment of power lines and transformer substations, and average undelivered energy, for which a method of assessment and calculation of the risks of accident of the power supply system was developed. Components of interdistrict electrical networks affect the occurrence of dangerous technogenic situations, creating risk-forming factors that can have different dimensions (rubles, W, MW h, etc.); may contain both numerical values and terms of the form “often,” “periodically,” “rarely,” and so on; and, therefore, are difficult to be take into account when working out the integral risk. This problem can be solved with the use of fuzzy logic—in particular, on the basis of the Fuzzy Toolbox 0.4.6 package. A point-linguistic system of risk factor assessment, a hierarchical structural scheme of an expert system for the assessment of dangerous technogenic situations as concerns power lines and substations, and a fuzzy inference system for the assessment of dangerous technogenic situations in relation to electrical installations of the Slavgorod interdistrict electrical networks were developed.