Abstract

A method is developed for approximating the properties of the state of a linear dynamic system driven by a broad class of non-Gaussian noise, namely, by polynomials of filtered Gaussian processes. The method involves four steps. First, the mean and correlation functions of the state of the system are calculated from those of the input noise. Second, higher order moments of the state are calculated based on Itô’s formula for continuous semimartingales. It is shown that equations governing these moments are closed, so that moment of any order of the state can be calculated exactly. Third, a conceptually simple technique, which resembles the Galerkin method for solving differential equations, is proposed for constructing approximations for the marginal distribution of the state from its moments. Fourth, translation models are calibrated to representations of the marginal distributions of the state as well as its second moment properties. The resulting models can then be utilized to estimate properties of the state, such as the mean rate at which the state exits a safe set. The implementation of the proposed method is demonstrated by numerous examples, including the turbulence-induced random vibration of a flexible plate.

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