Abstract
Although the compartmentalization of poultry industry components has substantial economic implications, and is therefore a concept with huge significance to poultry industries worldwide, the current requirements for compartment status are generic to all OIE member countries. We examined the consequences for potential outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza in the British poultry industry using a metapopulation modelling framework. This framework was used to assess the effectiveness of compartmentalization relative to zoning control, utilizing empirical data to inform the structure of potential epidemiological contacts within the British poultry industry via network links and spatial proximity. Conditions were identified where, despite the efficient isolation of poultry compartments through the removal of network-mediated links, spatially mediated airborne spread enabled spillover of infection with nearby premises making compartmentalization a more 'risky' option than zoning control. However, when zoning control did not effectively inhibit long-distance network links, compartmentalization became a relatively more effective control measure than zoning. With better knowledge of likely distance ranges for airborne spread, our approach could help define an appropriate minimum inter-farm distance to provide more specific guidelines for compartmentalization in Great Britain.
Highlights
Within the context of controlling notifiable livestock disease epidemics, the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) stipulates that ‘establishing and maintaining a disease-free status throughout the country should be the final goal for OIE members’.these guidelines recognize the difficulty in ‘establishing and maintaining a disease-free status for an entire territory’ and promote the benefits of establishing and maintaining subpopulations of animals with a distinct health status
We considered a range of values for γ (0·33, 0·25, 0·17 day−1), given by the reciprocal of anticipated farmlevel infectious periods, ranging 3–6 days consistent with previous models of the between-farm spread of avian influenza in Great Britain (GB) [23, 24]
Given the lack of experience of large highly pathogenic form (HPAI) outbreaks in GB, and the uncertainty in the pathogen’s likely transmissibility, we explored a range of transmission rates (0·0063–0·93 day−1) that generated basic reproduction numbers (R0) ranging from
Summary
Within the context of controlling notifiable livestock disease epidemics, the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) stipulates that ‘establishing and maintaining a disease-free status throughout the country should be the final goal for OIE members’ (chapter 4·3, OIE Terrestrial Animal Health Code [1]). These guidelines recognize the difficulty in ‘establishing and maintaining a disease-free status for an entire territory’ and promote the benefits of establishing and maintaining subpopulations of animals with a distinct health status.
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
