Abstract
In this paper, we present an analytical framework to establish a closed-form relationship between electricity generation expansion planning decisions and the resulting negative health externalities. Typical electricity generation expansion planning models determine the optimal technology–capacity–investment strategy that minimizes total investment costs as well as fixed and variable operation and maintenance costs. However, the relationship between these long-term planning decisions and the associated health externalities is highly stochastic and nonlinear, and it is computationally expensive to evaluate. Thus, we developed a closed-form metamodel by executing computer-based experiments of a generation expansion planning model, and we analyzed the resulting model outputs in a United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) screening tool that approximates the associated human health externalities. Procedural guidance to verify the accuracy and to select key metamodel parameters to enhance its prediction capability is presented. Specifically, the metamodel presented in this paper can predict the resulting health damages of long-term power grid expansion decisions, thus, enabling researchers and policy makers to quickly assess the health implications of power grid expansion decisions with a high degree of certainty.
Highlights
Since 2001, electricity generation in the United States has followed an increasing trajectory as there has been increasing demand for uninterrupted access to electricity for various global industries that are vital to economic growth [1]
To address the aforementioned challenges associated with approximating health damages from generation expansion planning decisions, we extended the work done by Rodgers et al in [3,17]
Following the approach developed by Rodgers et al, we first formulated and solved a generation expansion planning (GEP) model to determine the optimal technology capacity investment strategy that minimized market costs, including capital costs, fixed operation and maintenance costs, Int
Summary
Since 2001, electricity generation in the United States has followed an increasing trajectory as there has been increasing demand for uninterrupted access to electricity for various global industries that are vital to economic growth [1]. Since fossil fuels are burned to produce steam that is used to power turbines that drive electrical generators, this produces air emissions such as CO2 , SOX , NOX , volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and particulate matter [2]. Ground-level ozone concentrations in the tropospheric region of the atmosphere increase as a result of photochemical reactions with emissions from fossil fuel plants. These by-products are health hazards, as they contribute to smog, which may lead to heart and chronic lung conditions like asthma, bronchitis, and emphysema [3].
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