A meta-analysis of voter mobilization tactics by electoral salience

Abstract

After hundreds of field experiments assessing their effectiveness, voter mobilization tactics are often considered “settled science.” In this research note, we posit that this assumption is incorrect, due to inconsistent and insufficient attention to electoral salience in the literature. Researchers often conduct mobilization field experiments in low-salience elections due to limited resources and the need for adequate statistical power. However, practitioners often apply these findings in high-salience contexts. Theory suggests that effects of mobilization tactics will attenuate in high-salience elections due to heightened attention. We present refined meta-analytic estimates of common mobilization tactics in U.S. elections—canvassing, phone calls, direct mail, and SMS messages—based on electoral salience. Results show that effects of tactics attenuate 33%–76% from low- to high-salience contexts. We translate all findings into intent-to-treat (ITT) estimates to highlight the impact of declining contact rates. Finally, we identify significant gaps in the research and offer solutions.