A Measurement Model and Empirical Analysis of the Coordinated Development of Rural E-Commerce Logistics and Agricultural Modernization

Abstract

With technological revolutions and new rural revitalization strategies, rural e-commerce logistics and agricultural modernization are becoming the focus of society. The purpose of the current study is to measure the coupling coordination state of regional rural e-commerce logistics and agricultural modernization, to analyze the obstacles to coordinated development, to forecast the trend, and to propose policy suggestions for coordinated development. Based on the theory of system coordinated development, this paper selects representative indicators reflecting regional rural e-commerce logistics and agricultural modernization, and constructs a coordinated development measurement index system. This paper also constructs a coupling coordination-obstacle degree model, adopting Handan City, Hebei Province as an example, using the data obtained from 2010 to 2019 to measure the coordinated development status of rural e-commerce logistics and agricultural modernization; and analyzes the obstacles affecting coordinated development. By introducing the grey prediction GM (1,1) model and by applying it to the research, the results show that the model is feasible, and the coordinated development level of rural e-commerce logistics and agricultural modernization in Handan City presents a fluctuating upward trend. The prediction results show that the coordinated development of rural e-commerce logistics and agricultural modernization will achieve good coordination in 2024, and relevant development suggestions are proposed. The research can provide some decision-making references for establishing the measurement model, an obstacle-factor analysis, and a trend prediction for the coordinated development of regional rural e-commerce logistics and agricultural modernization.