A matter of time, not generations: rising emotional attachment to the European Union 1991–2023. An age period cohort analysis

Abstract

ABSTRACT The literature argues that successive generations have become progressively more attached to the EU, due to having experienced increasing levels of integration during their impressionable adolescent years. This generational view of EU attachment assumes that after birth cohorts have outgrown their impressionable years, they do not become more attached to the EU, regardless of period-based changes. However, newer theories of European integration emphasise period-based influences that shape EU attachment across all age cohorts, rather than solely impacting adolescents during their formative years. We use an age period cohort model with repeated cross-sectional Eurobarometer data from 1991 to 2023, showing that all EU-citizens have on average become more attached to the EU over time, rather than later-born birth cohorts being more attached to the EU based on their generational membership. Contrary to what the literature assumes, this indicates that no ‘generations of Europeans’ exist, but that EU-attachment increases for all cohorts over time. Contrary to long-standing assumptions in the literature, this indicates that efforts to increase emotional attachment to the EU can proceed faster than generational change occurs.