A matter of time: An impact evaluation of the Brazilian National Land Credit Program

Abstract

This paper provides an impact evaluation of the Programa Nacional de Crédito Fundiário, a market assisted land reform program in Brazil. The paper uses a panel dataset and pipeline control group to evaluate the program's impact on agricultural production and earned income, using a difference-in-differences model with either municipal or individual fixed effects. The heterogeneous effect of additional years of land ownership is investigated. The findings suggest that the program increases production and earned income by about 74% and 37%, but only after four years of land ownership. The conclusions are supported by a number of robustness tests, although considerable attrition and potential bias due to unobserved variables suggests caution. The benefits of the program largely go to making debt payments. If the impact on income continues to grow, as it did in the first five years, improvements in net wealth and current welfare could both be achieved.