Abstract
In this paper, we assess the relevance of social and cognitive factors such as self-efficacy, locus of control and exposure to negative social influence in relation to undergraduate student dropout. To this purpose, we analyze a compartmental model involving a system of nonlinear ODEs, which is loosely based upon the SIR model of mathematical epidemiology and describes the academic performance of the student population. We examine threshold values that govern the stability of the equilibria and can be viewed as target values to be reached in order to alleviate undergraduate students dropout. A backward bifurcation is observed to occur, analytically and numerically, provided that certain conditions are satisfied.
 A sensitivity analysis is then performed to find how the threshold values respond to changes in the parameters, a procedure for estimating these parameters being also proposed. Concrete values are then computed using survey data from a Ghanaian university. The impact of parameter variation upon the dynamics of the system, particularly on certain population sizes and on threshold values, is also numerically illustrated. Our findings are then interpreted from a social cognitive perspective, realistic policy changes being proposed along with appropriate teaching and coaching strategies.
Highlights
As the stress and anxiety levels of undergraduate students are rising higher and higher, there are many factors, which are prone to influencing their dropout intentions and their resilience when facing adverse circumstances or balancing academic and personal life challenges
There is ample evidence suggesting that locus of control (LOC), generally defined as the degree to which people believe that they can control the outcomes of events, which occur in their lives [19], influences how students react to course failure and their persistence towards achieving academic goals [8]
This paper investigates a mathematical model that relies on a system of nonlinear ODEs in order to analyze the extent to which the LOC and S-E of college students, along with exposure to negative social influences, influence student dropout
Summary
As the stress and anxiety levels of undergraduate students are rising higher and higher, there are many factors, which are prone to influencing their dropout intentions and their resilience when facing adverse circumstances or balancing academic and personal life challenges. There is ample evidence suggesting that locus of control (LOC), generally defined as the degree to which people believe that they can control the outcomes of events, which occur in their lives [19], influences how students react to course failure and their persistence towards achieving academic goals [8] In this regard, LOC distinguishes whether the outcomes of their actions are contingent on their own efforts and abilities (internal control) or on external factors such as luck, fate or the behaviors of others (external control) [15]. 3. To find realistic policy changes in order to address instances of repeated course failure and low academic performance as well as high dropout rates in higher education from a social cognitive perspective. A discussion of our results from a social cognitive perspective is given in Section 7, along with several concluding remarks
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