A mathematical simulation model to determine the optimal endoscopic screening strategy for detection of H. pylori-naïve gastric neoplasms.

Abstract

The effectiveness of esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) screening in cohorts with low Helicobacter pylori prevalence is unknown. This study aimed to develop an optimally efficient EGD screening strategy for detecting H. pylori-naïve gastric neoplasms (HpNGNs). EGD data of 12 institutions from 2016 to 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. Age-related HpNGN prevalence, tumor growth rate, missing rate, and detection threshold size were calculated from the databases. Subsequently, using clinical data, a novel mathematical model that simultaneously simulated demographic changes and HpNGN detection was developed. Screening strategies using different starting ages (40/45/50years) and intervals (2/5/10years) were also compared. The detection rates of all tumors occurring within the virtual cohort and number-needed-to-test (NNT) were measured as outcomes. Data of 519,368 EGDs and 97 HpNGNs (34 pure signet ring cell carcinomas, 26 gastric adenocarcinomas of the fundic gland type, 30 foveolar gastric adenoma-Raspberry type, and seven undifferentiated-type cancer cases) were analyzed. A virtual cohort with a 70-year time horizon was used to simulate the occurrence, growth, and detection of 346,5836 people. Among the strategies with detection rate > 50%, the screening strategy with a 5-year interval starting at 45years of age had the lowest NNT. Adopting this strategy, most HpNGNs were detected at < 20mm in size, and the deep submucosal invasion rate was less than 30%. A mathematical simulation model revealed that screening every 5years starting at 45years of age could efficiently assist in identifying HpNGNs at an early stage.