A mathematical prognosis modelling of reocclusions in patients with occlusive-stenotic diseases of the main arteries of the infrarenal aorta

Abstract

Annotation. Obliterating atherosclerosis the lower extremities vessels often leads to permanent disability and mortality in some cases. Despite the improvement of methods and techniques of endovascular and open operations, nowadays there is still a significant frequency of amputations due to progression of atheroscleroses and various intra- and postoperative complications, such as shunt thrombosis or thrombosis of zone of reconstruction. Therefore, the aim was to research the factors influencing the occurrence of reocclusion after surgery and to develop predictive modeling of the risk of their occurrence with the help of logistic mathematical regression. 100 patients with occlusive-stenotic lesions of the main arteries of the infrarenal aorta by atherosclerotic origin were examined. 50 patients (general group) revealed reocclusion occurred in the early postoperative period, and 50 patients (comparison group) have no reocclusion. The factors influencing the occurrence of reocclusion have been identified, and mathematical prognostic modeling of reocclusions based on logistic regression has been created. It was found that the risk of reocclusion increases significantly with increasing duration of the lesion (b=0.5214, p=0.005), in the presence of complex anatomical conditions (b=3.5080, p=0.034), in the presence of two or more multistory occlusions (b=9.0073, p=0.002), in the presence of technical errors in the intervention process (b=8.0802, p=0.004).