A MATHEMATICAL MODEL TO ADDRESS OUT-OF-SCHOOL CHILDREN MENACE FOR ACTUALIZATION OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN NIGERIA

Abstract

The rising number of out-of-school children (OOSC) constitutes a major obstacle to growth and development in Nigeria. Despite various institutional frameworks and policy initiatives, Nigeria accounts for the highest number of OOSC worldwide with one out of every five OOSC globally residing in Nigeria. In an attempt to characterize dynamics of OOSC and how it could be tackled to fount sustainable development in Nigeria, a new mathematical model was formulated. The validity of the model was examined using some mathematical theorems and the model equilibria were derived. The inclusive schooling ratio, an analytic parameter that quantified the extent to which the rising OOSC was being tackled to fount development, was computed. The stability properties of the model were studied via stability theory of differential equations based on the derived inclusive schooling ratio. Sensitivity analysis was conducted for some major parameters following the normalized forward sensitivity index approach to examine the relative importance of the model parameters to OOSC expansion and contraction. Numerical simulation was later conducted to justify the theoretical results and the results of the simulation showed that efforts to fount development through minimization of OOSC were fruitful if the inclusive schooling ratio was greater than one otherwise the menace of OOSC persisted. The policy implication of the result is that tackling the menace of OOSC to fount sustainable development in Nigeria is a long-term process and any policies designed to pursue the course must be sustained.