Abstract
SummaryThe development of epilepsy (epileptogenesis) involves a complex interplay of neuronal and immune processes. Here, we present a first-of-its-kind mathematical model to better understand the relationships among these processes. Our model describes the interaction between neuroinflammation, blood-brain barrier disruption, neuronal loss, circuit remodeling, and seizures. Formulated as a system of nonlinear differential equations, the model reproduces the available data from three animal models. The model successfully describes characteristic features of epileptogenesis such as its paradoxically long timescales (up to decades) despite short and transient injuries or the existence of qualitatively different outcomes for varying injury intensity. In line with the concept of degeneracy, our simulations reveal multiple routes toward epilepsy with neuronal loss as a sufficient but non-necessary component. Finally, we show that our model allows for in silico predictions of therapeutic strategies, revealing injury-specific therapeutic targets and optimal time windows for intervention.
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