Abstract

Even in perfect competition there is a positive profit return if the good is produced with decreasing returns to scale technology. Using a two-periods overlapping generations (OLG) model with production under perfect competition with decreasing returns to scale technology in which the economy grows by technological progress and the older generation consumers receive the profit returns, we consider the problem of budget deficit under economic growth. We will show the following results. 1) We need a budget deficit to achieve full employment under constant price when the economy grows by technological progress. 2) If the budget deficit exceeds the level necessary to maintain full employment in a growing economy under constant price, inflation will be triggered. We need a stable budget deficit to prevent further inflation. 3) If the budget deficit is insufficient to maintain full employment, it will cause a recession with involuntary unemployment. We can overcome a recession and restore full employment caused by insufficient budget deficit by a budget deficit larger than the one necessary and sufficient to maintain full employment without a recession. We should not offset the deficit created to overcome the recession by subsequent surpluses because we can maintain full employment through constant budget deficits. Also, we show that in each case the budget deficit equals the difference between the net savings of the younger generation consumers and that of the older generation consumers.

Highlights

  • In previous studies we examined the arguments for fiscal policy by Functional Finance Theory of Lerner (1943, 1944) and MMT (Modern Monetary Theory, Wray (2015), Mitchell, Wray and Watts (2019), Kelton (2020))1 using a static model or an overlapping generations model with production under perfect competition with constant returns to scale technology

  • Using a two-periods overlapping generations (OLG) model with production under perfect competition with decreasing returns to scale technology in which the economy grows by technological progress and the older generation consumers receive the profit returns, we consider the problem of budget deficit under economic growth

  • In order to include the existence of corporate profits in the analysis, it is possible to consider the case of production using labor and capital, or to use a monopolistic competition model, but this paper deals with a simple model of perfect competition under decreasing returns to scale

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Summary

Introduction

In previous studies we examined the arguments for fiscal policy by Functional Finance Theory of Lerner (1943, 1944) and MMT (Modern Monetary Theory, Wray (2015), Mitchell, Wray and Watts (2019), Kelton (2020)) using a static model or an overlapping generations model with production under perfect competition with constant returns to scale technology. 1) We need a budget deficit to achieve and maintain full employment under constant price when the economy grows by technological progress. 2) If the budget deficit exceeds the level necessary and sufficient to achieve and maintain full employment in a growing economy under constant price, inflation will be triggered. This may have the effect of lowering interest rates, but it will not directly increase demand for goods and will not cause high-rate inflation because people's assets will not increase (unless the central bank buys them at prices above face value) and they will not generate income If it is done during a recession, low-rate inflation will not occur either. Since government bonds are money in the same broad sense as bank time deposits ("liquidity in the broad sense"), and since the central bank's purchase of government bonds does not increase the money supply in that sense, inflation does not occur even from the perspective of the Quantity Theory of Money

Economic Growth and Budget Deficit
Inflation by Excess Budget Deficit
Recession and Involuntary Unemployment by Insufficient Budget Deficit
Recovery from Recession by the Government Expenditure
Recovery from Recession by the Tax Reduction
Concluding Remark
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