Abstract
Since the first case of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) detected on 30 January, 2020, in India, the number of cases rapidly increased to 3819 cases including 106 deaths as of 5 April, 2020. Taking this into account, in the present work, we have analysed a Bats–Hosts–Reservoir–People transmission fractional-order COVID-19 model for simulating the potential transmission with the thought of individual response and control measures by the government. The real data available about number of infected cases from 14 March, 2000 to 26 March, 2020 is analysed and, accordingly, various parameters of the model are estimated or fitted. The Picard successive approximation technique and Banach’s fixed point theory have been used for verification of the existence and stability criteria of the model. Further, we conduct stability analysis for both disease-free and endemic equilibrium states. On the basis of sensitivity analysis and dynamics of the threshold parameter, we estimate the effectiveness of preventive measures, predicting future outbreaks and potential control strategies of the disease using the proposed model. Numerical computations are carried out utilising the iterative Laplace transform method and comparative study of different fractional differential operators is done. The impacts of various biological parameters on transmission dynamics of COVID-19 is investigated. Finally, we illustrate the obtained results graphically.
Highlights
Coronavirus disease is likely to emerge as a watershed moment in the history of the planet
Motivated by this and above useful applications of the Caputo–Fabrizio (CF) operator in epidemic mathematical models, we investigate the dynamics of a novel coronavirus model based on the human-to-human transmission as well as from reservoir-to-human suggested by Khan et al [11] in the form of a system of nonlinear differential equations
7 Conclusions In this paper, we proposed the pandemic problem of the COVID-19
Summary
Coronavirus disease is likely to emerge as a watershed moment in the history of the planet. Every such model depends on classical derivatives that have some limitations related to the order of differential equations under consideration To overcome these restrictions, many authors have looked for the help of a recently emerging area of mathematics known as fractional calculus. We believe that a suitable mathematical model will be helpful for health officials to take positive measures to contain the spread of the contagious disease of the novel coronavirus Motivated by this and above useful applications of the Caputo–Fabrizio (CF) operator in epidemic mathematical models, we investigate the dynamics of a novel coronavirus model based on the human-to-human transmission as well as from reservoir-to-human suggested by Khan et al [11] in the form of a system of nonlinear differential equations. The required basic reproduction number R0 is given as μφ(λ + σ )(αβηλ + γ ν) + δ(1 – φ)(λ + ρ)(αηλ + γ κ)
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