Abstract
The outbreak of COVID-19 infection and its effects have not spared any economy on the globe. The fourth variant has just announced its appearance with its high death toll and impact on economic activities. The basic reproductive number R 0 , which measures the transmission potential of an infectious disease, is extremely important in the study of epidemiology. The main purpose of this study was to derive R 0 and assess the stability of the model around its equilibrium points. The motivation was to simulate the effect of COVID-19 on the demand for fashion products and how its application has impacted the COVID-19 pandemic. A five-compartment susceptible-infection-recovery-susceptible-based model was formulated in an integrated environment with application of fashion-based personal protective equipment (FPPEs) and government policy regulation, using ordinary differential equations. Solution techniques included a mix of qualitative analysis and simulations with data from various publications on COVID-19. The study revealed that the disease-free equilibrium was both locally and globally asymptotically stable (LAS and GAS) for R 0 ≤ 1 , while the disease-endemic equilibrium was both LAS and GAS for R 0 ≥ 1 . As the demand for FPPEs increases, R 0 decreases, and vice versa. The sensitivity analysis indicated that R 0 was very sensitive to the rate of application of FPPEs. This confirms the significance of high demand for FPPEs in reducing the transmission of COVID-19 infection. Again, the pandemic has had both positive and negative impacts on the demand for fashion products; however, the negative impact outweighed the positive impact. Another discovery was that government policy stringency was significant in increasing demand for FPPEs. The sensitivity analyses suggested prioritization of FPPEs application together with all recommended PPEs. We recommend inter alia that FPPEs be used together with other nonpharmaceutical interventions. Operators in the fashion industry must be dynamic in adjusting to the new trends of taste for fashion products. Finally, governments should maintain high policy stringency.
Highlights
E outbreak of COVID-19 infection and its effects have not spared any economy on the globe. e fourth variant has just announced its appearance with its high death toll and impact on economic activities. e basic reproductive number (R0), which measures the transmission potential of an infectious disease, is extremely important in the study of epidemiology. e main purpose of this study was to derive R0 and assess the stability of the model around its equilibrium points. e motivation was to simulate the effect of COVID-19 on the demand for fashion products and how its application has impacted the COVID-19 pandemic
It is eminent to classify the effect of this pandemic on the growth of the fashion industry into both positive and negative effects. e positive effect is represented by the growth of the fashion industry due to the increase in the demand for fashiontypified PPEs, while the negative effect is proxied by the decline in the growth of the fashion industry owing to the decline in the demand for nonFPPEs and other normal fashion products. e net effect will be the sum of the two effects
One effect will outweigh the other. e positive effect could be influenced by government policy regulation, which enforced the use of fashion-based PPEs (FPPEs) such as nose masks, face-shields/masks, hand gloves, among other things. is effect shall be labelled as safety or precautionary measures
Summary
We developed a simple mathematical model that exemplified the growth dynamics of the fashion industry in this era of COVID-19 pandemic. e model was a five-state nonlinear system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs), where the states were represented by susceptible population S, COVID-19 infected population (I), recovered population (R), application of PPEs, which is used synonymously with the demand for PPEs (A), and government policy regulation (G). is constituted the SIRS model with emphasis on the effect of COVID-19 infection on the growth of the fashion industry on the one hand, and the role of the fashion industry in mitigating the accelerated rate of spread of this SARS-CoV-2 disease. Is means that the rate of transfer of infection into the state I is reduced at a rate π1 due to the application of FPPEs. S decreases as its members interact with the COVID-19 infectious population (I) at a transmission rate of infection μ1. Explaining further, the recovery state R increases as the infected population recovers at a rate μ2 but decreases through the natural death rate σ1 and transition to the state S at a rate μ3 of loss of immunity In this model, the birth rate constitutes the only source of recruitment rate into the population; immigration is ignored to allow concentration on community or horizontal transmission of the COVID-19 infection. It is assumed that government policy regulation will be applied in two dimensions; the first is a movement-based restriction policy (lockdown, prohibition of all forms of social activities or gathering, inter alia). e second relates to policy enforcement on precautionary or safety measures such as PPEs application in general, of which FPPEs is a constituent, social distancing, among others
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
