A mathematical model for SARS-CoV-2 in variable-order fractional derivative.

Abstract

A new coronavirus mathematical with hospitalization is considered with the consideration of the real cases from March 06, 2021 till the end of April 30, 2021. The essential mathematical results for the model are presented. We show the model stability when {mathcal {R}}_0<1 in the absence of infection. We show that the system is stable locally asymptotically when {mathcal {R}}_0<1 at infection free state. We also show that the system is globally asymptotically stable in the disease absence when {mathcal {R}}_0<1. Data have been used to fit accurately to the model and found the estimated basic reproduction number to be {mathcal {R}}_0= 1.2036. Some graphical results for the effective parameters are drawn for the disease elimination. In addition, a variable-order model is introduced, and so as to handle the outbreak effectively and efficiently, a genetic algorithm is used to produce high-quality control. Numerical simulations clearly show that decision-makers may develop helpful and practical strategies to manage future waves by implementing optimum policies.