A MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR PREDICTING THE OUTCOME OF TREATMENT OF MULTIDRUD-RESISTANT TUBERCULOSIS

Abstract

The aim: Predicting the effectiveness of treatment for MRI of the lungs by developing a mathematical model to predict treatment outcomes. Materials and methods: 84 patients with MRI of the lungs: group 1 (n = 56) – with signs of effective TB treatment at the end of the intensive phase; group 2 (n = 28) – patients with signs of ineffective treatment. We used the multivariate discriminant analysis method using the statistical environment STATISTICA 13. Results: During the discriminant analysis, the parameters of the clinical blood analysis (monocytes, stab leukocytes, erythrocytes) were selected, which were associated with high (r> 0.5) statistically significant correlations with the levels of MMP-9, TIMP-1, oxyproline and its fractions and aldosterone in the formation of the prognosis. The mathematical model allows, in the form of comparing the results of solving two linear equations and comparing their results, to predict the outcome of treatment: “1” effective treatment, “2” – ineffective treatment. Early prediction of treatment effectiveness is promising, as it allows the use of the developed mathematical model as an additional criterion for the selection of patients for whom surgical treatment is recommended, in order to increase the effectiveness of treatment. Conclusions: An additional criterion for predicting ineffective MRI treatment, along with the criteria provided for by WHO recommendations, is a mathematical model that takes into account probably strong correlation (r = 0.5, p <0.05) between the factors of connective tissue destruction, collagen destruction, aldosterone , and indicators of a clinical blood test (between levels of OBZ and monocytes (r = 0.82, p = 0.00001), OB and monocytes (r = 0.92, p = 0.000001) OB and stab leukocytes (r = – 0.87, p = 0.0003) OBZ and stab leukocytes (r = – 0.53, p = 0.017), aldosterone and ESR.