A Mathematical Model for Outcome Prediction in Severe Head Injury

Abstract

A prospective study was conducted using ten clinical parameters in prediction of outcome in hundred patients with severe head injury who satisfied the criteria adopted by the International Data Bank. Results of the first fifty patients showed a combination of glasgow coma scale, fronto-orbicular reflex and vertical oculocephalic response can provide a reliable prediction of outcome in severe head injury. Based upon this, a mathematical model was constructed giving a value for the above mentioned three factors. It was used prospectively in the next fifty patients to determine the type of outcome. The mathematical model was “Glasgow coma scale x (Fronto-orbicular reflex + Vertical oculocephalic response) × 5”. The results obtained by use of this model was compared with the logistic regression model. The accuracy of this mathematical model when used on third post traumatic day was above 90%.