Abstract
In this work we considered a nonlinear deterministic dynamical system to study the dynamics of HIV/AIDS with age structure and different mode of transmissions in Ethiopia. We found that the diseases free equilibrium point and endemic equilibrium points exist and we perform their local stability and global stability analysis using nonlinear stability methods. We found that the basic reproduction number of the considered dynamical system depends on the considered parameters and using real data collected from different health sectors in Ethiopia we found the numerical value of the reproduction number is R_0=1.05>1. This shows that the considered disease spreads in the community. From the sensitivity index of the dynamical system we found that the most sensitive parameter is the transmission rate of unaware infective humans to aware infectiveθ. We also showed that the effect of all parameters on the basic reproduction number using numerical simulation.
Highlights
Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) remains a major global health problem affecting approximately 70 million people worldwide causing significant morbidity and mortality [1].In Ethiopia in 2018, 690 000 people were living with HIV
After some calculations using Routh Hurwitz stability criterion we found that all roots of the characteristic equation have negative real part, the endemic equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable
Results from Numerical simulation show that as the transmission rate of unaware infective humans to aware infective increases, the basic reproduction number decreases. This will result in decreasing on the transmission of HIV/AIDS
Summary
HIV/AIDS remains a major global health problem affecting approximately 70 million people worldwide causing significant morbidity and mortality [1].In Ethiopia in 2018, 690 000 people were living with HIV. HIV incidence per 1000 uninfected the number of new HIV infections among the uninfected population over one year among all people of all ages was 0.24. 23 000 people were newly infected with HIV and 11 000 people died from an AIDS-related illness. The number of new HIV infections has decreased, from 29 000 to 23 000 in the same period. The 90–90–90 targets envision that, by 2020, 90% of people living with HIV will know their HIV status, 90% of people who know their HIV-positive status will be accessing treatment and 90% of people on treatment will have suppressed viral loads. In terms of all people living with HIV, reaching the 90–90–90 targets means that 81% of all people living with HIV are on treatment and 73% of all people living with HIV are virally suppressed. In 2018 in Ethiopia 79% of people living with HIV knew their status and 65% of people living with HIV were on treatment [2]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
