A mathematical forecasting model for the annual prevalence of Fasciolosis

Abstract

Fasciolosis is a serious economic disease of cattle and sheep with a worlwide distribution. In the annual control of the disease, it is vital that the issue of specific veterinary advice on the strategic use of control measures should be based on precise estimates of the levels of risk of the occurrence of the disease. In Northern Ireland, a mathematical model has been developed to forecast accurately the prevalence of the disease in any year. The development of the model has been facilitated by the use of a computerised information retrieval system for an extensive integrated database of abattoir condemnation and meteorological data. The model accounts for 90% of the variation in an 18-year time series of the prevalence of fasciolosis in Northern Ireland. The mathematical model has been used to forecast the level of disease expected in subsequent years in Northern Ireland and has proven to be highly accurate. The forecasting model is now used each year as the basis of an advisory government campaign on the strategic use of veterinary control measures required to reduce the prevalence of this economically important disease. The forecasting model could be adopted for use in any region of the world where relevant abattoir condemnation and meteorological data are available.