Abstract
Many studies on the relationship between outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data observed by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Satellites (NOAA) with strong earthquakes are based on a certain zone or a couple of earthquakes. But it’s hard to know if the algorithm works by looking at just one earthquake. In this paper, after algorithm analysis of OLR signals based on martingale theory during the 10 years from 2009 to 2018, a time series analysis of re-anomaly screening for the 10 years’ data is proposed. The experimental results show that this method can be more effective in the statistical analysis of historical data and further improve the reliability of prediction.
Highlights
The most of the cause of earthquakes is the rupture of a faults zone [1], there are many earthquakes occurred just because of the area on the fault-melt, and the thermal omen is observed at the same time [2]
Scholars have proposed that 2017 Jiuzhaigou earthquake is delayed by the Wenchuan earthquake and the former event possibly results from the south-eastward movement of the Bayankala block, which in turn arises from the collision of Indian‐Australian Plate and the Eurasian Plate [4]
We proposed a method which called the Martingale and SEA Algorithm (MSA) algorithm base on our previous work, which is reference Martingale theory [15], [24] and the Geometric Moving Average (GMA) method
Summary
The most of the cause of earthquakes is the rupture of a faults zone [1], there are many earthquakes occurred just because of the area on the fault-melt, and the thermal omen is observed at the same time [2]. The occurrence of an earthquake has a preparation process may start 1-30 days ago [19], [25] To validate their result and to find out those characteristics of OLR in other aspects, we apply some statistical studies based on the data of Jiuzhaigou, China, 2009-2018 in this study, and we were more focus on the Ms6.5 earthquake at Aug 8th, 2017 to conduct the time series analysis. We have studied OLR signals in Jiuzhaigou region from 2009 to 2018 and conducted time series analysis based on martingale theory algorithm in our previous research The information about these earthquakes is from the website of U.S Geological Survey, which is part of the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) led by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). No 5 in table 1 lists the information about this earthquake
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