A Market Model for Evaluating Technologies That Impact Critical‐Material Intensity

Abstract

A recent Critical Materials Strategy report highlighted the supply chain risk associated with neodymium and dysprosium, which are used in the manufacturing of neodymium-iron-boron permanent magnets (PM). In response, the Critical Materials Institute is developing innovative strategies to increase and diversify primary production, develop substitutes, reduce material intensity and recycle critical materials. Our goal in this paper is to propose an economic model to quantify the impact of one of these strategies, material intensity reduction. Technologies that reduce material intensity impact the economics of magnet manufacturing in multiple ways because of: (1) the lower quantity of critical material required per unit PM, (2) more efficient use of limited supply, and (3) the potential impact on manufacturing cost. However, the net benefit of these technologies to a magnet manufacturer is an outcome of an internal production decision subject to market demand characteristics, availability and resource constraints. Our contribution in this paper shows how a manufacturer’s production economics moves from a region of being supply-constrained, to a region enabling the market optimal production quantity, to a region being constrained by resources other than critical materials, as the critical material intensity changes. Key insights for engineers and material scientists are: (1) material intensity reduction can have a significant market impact, (2) benefits to manufacturers are non-linear in the material intensity reduction, (3) there exists a threshold value for material intensity reduction that can be calculated for any target PM application, and (4) there is value for new intellectual property (IP) when existing manufacturing technology is IP-protected.