Abstract
BackgroundMalaria is a major public health issue in much of the world, and the mosquito vectors which drive transmission are key targets for interventions. Mathematical models for planning malaria eradication benefit from detailed representations of local mosquito populations, their natural dynamics and their response to campaign pressures.MethodsA new model is presented for mosquito population dynamics, effects of weather, and impacts of multiple simultaneous interventions. This model is then embedded in a large-scale individual-based simulation and results for local elimination of malaria are discussed. Mosquito population behaviours, such as anthropophily and indoor feeding, are included to study their effect upon the efficacy of vector control-based elimination campaigns.ResultsResults for vector control tools, such as bed nets, indoor spraying, larval control and space spraying, both alone and in combination, are displayed for a single-location simulation with vector species and seasonality characteristic of central Tanzania, varying baseline transmission intensity and vector bionomics. The sensitivities to habitat type, anthropophily, indoor feeding, and baseline transmission intensity are explored.ConclusionsThe ability to model a spectrum of local vector species with different ecologies and behaviours allows local customization of packages of interventions and exploration of the effect of proposed new tools.
Highlights
Malaria is a major public health issue in much of the world, and the mosquito vectors which drive transmission are key targets for interventions
Malaria is transmitted by the blood feeding of infectious female Anopheles mosquitoes, and understanding mosquito ecology and population dynamics can inform how best to defeat malaria
Steady states are rare to non-existent in malaria transmission: seasonality in temperature and rainfall changes vector population sizes and infection rates, monthly rainfall for the same month varies from year to year, and human population infectiousness may not be at the same level at the same time each year, all of which may affect the impact of interventions as a function of their timing
Summary
A new model is presented for mosquito population dynamics, effects of weather, and impacts of multiple simultaneous interventions. This model is embedded in a large-scale individual-based simulation and results for local elimination of malaria are discussed. Mosquito population behaviours, such as anthropophily and indoor feeding, are included to study their effect upon the efficacy of vector control-based elimination campaigns
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