A macro-level understanding of levels and trends in the abuse and homicide of children, 1997–2020

Abstract

BackgroundData suggest that U.S. rates of violence declined beginning in the 1990s. However, crime trend studies have not entirely agreed on reasons for the decline, and few have empirically assessed the decline in violence against children more specifically. ObjectiveThis study investigates several competing hypotheses for explaining declines in reported child physical abuse, sexual abuse, and homicide. Attention is given to the importance of these explanatory factors for explaining both rates (levels) and year-over-year differences (trends) in these child outcomes. Participants and settingPopulation-level state-panel data for the years 1997–2020 are used, totaling 1176 state-years. MethodsLinear panel-data models are used to examine the relationship between explanatory factors and levels and trends in rates of reported child abuse and child homicide. ResultsAs operationalized in this study, few of the hypotheses proposed for explaining declines in child victimization were associated with levels or trends in reported child abuse. The only explanatory factor significantly associated with lower rates of reported child physical abuse was the rate of alternative response. Year-over-year increases in lagged female incarceration rates were associated with year-over-year declines in rates of reported physical abuse. Several explanatory measures were associated with levels or trends in child homicide, while only methylphenidate distribution was associated with levels of reported child sexual abuse. ConclusionsPolicymakers should be aware of the importance of alternative response rates on rates of reported child physical abuse and recognize that macro-level declines in reported child victimization may only be possible if macro-level conditions are also addressed.