A machine learning stacking model accurately estimating gastric fluid volume in patients undergoing elective sedated gastrointestinal endoscopy

Abstract

ABSTRACT Background The current point-of-care ultrasound (POCUS) assessment of gastric fluid volume primarily relies on the traditional linear approach, which often suffers from moderate accuracy. This study aimed to develop an advanced machine learning (ML) model to estimate gastric fluid volume more accurately. Methods We retrospectively analyzed the clinical data and POCUS data (D1: craniocaudal diameter, D2: anteroposterior diameter) of 1386 patients undergoing elective sedated gastrointestinal endoscopy (GIE) at Nanjing First Hospital to predict gastric fluid volume using ML techniques, including six different ML models and a stacking model. We evaluated the models using the adjusted Coefficient of Determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE). The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method was used to interpret the importance of the variables. Finally, a web calculator was constructed to facilitate its clinical application. Results The stacking model (Linear regression + Multilayer perceptron) performed best, with the highest adjusted R2 of 0.718 (0.632 to 0.804). The mean prediction bias was 4 ml (MAE: 4.008 (3.68 to 4.336)), which is better than that of the linear model. D1 and D2 ranked high in the SHAP plot and performed better in the right lateral decubitus (RLD) than in the supine position. The web calculator can be accessed at https://cheason.shinyapps.io/Stacking_regressor/. Conclusion The stacking model and its web calculator can serve as practical tools for accurately estimating gastric fluid volume in patients undergoing elective sedated GIE. It is recommended that anesthesiologists measure D1 and D2 in the patient’s RLD position.