A machine learning approach to evaluate coastal risks related to extreme weather events in the Veneto region (Italy)

Abstract

A significant and unprecedented increase of temperature has been recorded worldwide during the last decades, leading to the occurrence of numerous extreme events. Coastal areas, with their high population density, interconnected economic activities, fragile ecosystems, are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. These impacts can be intensified by the interactions of multiple hazards which operate at different spatio-temporal scales and affect exposure and vulnerability patterns. An integrated approach is here proposed to assess the relationship between risk factors and to evaluate the multiplicity of impacts that may affect the coastline. A new path to tackle these multi-risk events is offered by ML algorithms to effectively handle vast amounts of heterogenous data, and model complex non-linear relationships between multiple factors and feedback mechanisms. To assess impacts caused by extreme events (storm surges, extreme precipitation, wind events) in the Veneto coastal municipalities, a ML approach was developed to understand connections between atmospheric and marine hazards and impacts recorded by the Veneto region emergency archive during the 2009–2019 timeframe, identifying the most influencing factors triggering multiple risks. Additionally, the coastal municipalities were clustered considering the intrinsic relationships between impact occurrences, exposure and vulnerability features. Several algorithms were compared to estimate daily risk of impacts to occur providing hazards, exposure and vulnerability information. The MLP algorithm showed satisfactory performances (weighted-F1-score of 0.94) to estimate the relative importance of input features. The proposed algorithm was designed as support tool to increase the understanding of impacts’ occurrence in coastal areas, thus helping the adaptation planning process.