A machine learning approach for the prediction of pore pressure using well log data of Hikurangi Tuaheni Zone of IODP Expedition 372, New Zealand

Abstract

Pore pressure (PP) information plays an important role in analysing the geomechanical properties of the reservoir and hydrocarbon field development. PP prediction is an essential requirement to ensure safe drilling operations and it is a fundamental input for well design, and mud weight estimation for wellbore stability. However, the pore pressure trend prediction in complex geological provinces is challenging particularly at oceanic slope setting, where sedimentation rate is relatively high and PP can be driven by various complex geo-processes. To overcome these difficulties, an advanced machine learning (ML) tool is implemented in combination with empirical methods. The empirical method for PP prediction is comprised of data pre-processing and model establishment stage. Eaton's method and Porosity method have been used for PP calculation of the well U1517A located at Tuaheni Landslide Complex of Hikurangi Subduction zone of IODP expedition 372. Gamma-ray, sonic travel time, bulk density and sonic derived porosity are extracted from well log data for the theoretical framework construction. The normal compaction trend (NCT) curve analysis is used to check the optimum fitting of the low permeable zone data. The statistical analysis is done using the histogram analysis and Pearson correlation coefficient matrix with PP data series to identify potential input combinations for ML-based predictive model development. The dataset is prepared and divided into two parts: Training and Testing. The PP data and well log of borehole U1517A is pre-processed to scale in between [-1, +1] to fit into the input range of the non-linear activation/transfer function of the decision tree regression model. The Decision Tree Regression (DTR) algorithm is built and compared to the model performance to predict the PP and identify the overpressure zone in Hikurangi Tuaheni Zone of IODP Expedition 372.