A Machine Learning Approach for Rainfall Estimation Integrating Heterogeneous Data Sources

Abstract

Providing an accurate rainfall estimate at individual points is a challenging problem in order to mitigate risks derived from severe rainfall events, such as floods and landslides. Dense networks of sensors, named rain gauges (RGs), are typically used to obtain direct measurements of precipitation intensity in these points. These measurements are usually interpolated by using spatial interpolation methods for estimating the precipitation field over the entire area of interest. However, these methods are computationally expensive, and to improve the estimation of the variable of interest in unknown points, it is necessary to integrate further information. To overcome these issues, this work proposes a machine learning-based methodology that exploits a classifier based on ensemble methods for rainfall estimation and is able to integrate information from different remote sensing measurements. The proposed approach supplies an accurate estimate of the rainfall where RGs are not available, permits the integration of heterogeneous data sources exploiting both the high quantitative precision of RGs and the spatial pattern recognition ensured by radars and satellites, and is computationally less expensive than the interpolation methods. Experimental results, conducted on real data concerning an Italian region, Calabria, show a significant improvement in comparison with Kriging with external drift (KED), a well-recognized method in the field of rainfall estimation, both in terms of the probability of detection (0.58 versus 0.48) and mean-square error (0.11 versus 0.15).