A Low-Cost Algorithm for Uncertainty Quantification Simulations of Steady-State Flows: Application to Ocular Hemodynamics

Abstract

An algorithm for the calculation of steady-state flowing under uncertain conditions is introduced in this work in order to obtain a probabilistic distribution of uncertain problem parameters. This is particularly important for problems with increased uncertainty, as typical deterministic methods are not able to fully describe all possible flow states of the problem. Standard methods, such as polynomial expansions and Monte Carlo simulations, are used for the formation of the generalized problem described by the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations. Since every realization of the uncertainty parameter space is coupled with non-linear terms, an incremental iterative procedure was adopted for the calculation. This algorithm adopts a Jacobi-like iteration methodology to decouple the equations and solve them one by one until there is overall convergence. The algorithm was tested in a typical artery geometry, including a bifurcation with an aneurysm, which consists of a well-documented biological flow test case. Additionally, its dependence on the uncertainty parameter space, i.e., the inlet velocity distribution, the Reynolds number variation, and parameters of the procedure, i.e., the number of polynomial expansions, was studied. Symmetry exists in probabilistic theories, similar to the one adopted by the present work. The results of the simulations conducted with the present algorithm are compared against the same but unsteady flow with a time-dependent inlet velocity profile, which represents a typical cardiac cycle. It was found that the present algorithm is able to correctly describe the flow field, as well as capture the upper and lower limits of the velocity field, which was made periodic. The comparison between the present algorithm and the typical unsteady one presented a maximum error of ≈2% in the common carotid area, while the error increased significantly inside the bifurcation area. Moreover, “sensitive” areas of the geometry with increased parameter uncertainty were identified, a result that is not possible to be obtained while using deterministic algorithms. Finally, the ability of the algorithm to tune the parameter limits was successfully tested.