A longitudinal area classification of migration in Great Britain: Testing the application of Group-Based Multi-Trajectory Modelling.

Abstract

The migration of people affects the geographical distribution of the population and the demographic composition of areas over the short, medium and long terms. To recognise and respond to the corresponding needs and challenges, including consequences for service provision, social cohesion and population health, there is a continuing need to understand migration patterns of the past and present. Area classifications are a useful tool to simplify the inherently complex data on migration flows and characteristics. Yet, existing classifications often lack direct migration measures or focus solely on cross-sectional data. This study addresses these limitations by employing Group-Based Multi-Trajectory Modelling (GBMTM) to create a longitudinal, migration-specific classification of Great Britain's wards from 1981 to 2011, using six migration indicators. Using U.K. census data, we reveal six distinct migration clusters that highlight the rapid growth in studentifying neighbourhoods, the continuous influx of migrants into inner cities, and a noticeable North-South divide in terms of movers' tenure enforced by persisting income selectivity. Additionally, the geographical distribution of clusters shows a common pattern in urban areas irrespective of size or location. The longitudinal perspective of our GBMTM classification highlights trends and changes in migration patterns that are not well reflected in either the general purpose or the cross-sectional migration classification that we used as comparators. We conclude that the method presented and the classification generated offer a novel lens on migration and provide new opportunities to explore the effects of migration on a variety of outcomes and at various scales.