A longitudinal analysis and projection of provincial murder trends in South Africa: Causation and spatiality (2022-2027)

Abstract

This article conducts a longitudinal analysis of provincial murder trends in South Africa, examining the socio-economic and spatial factors contributing to violence. It highlights how extreme income inequality, unemployment, and regional disparities drive high murder rates, with a notable concentration in provinces such as Gauteng, Eastern Cape, and Western Cape. Utilising secondary data from the South African Police Service, the study identifies key motives for murder, including interpersonal conflicts, robbery, and gang violence. Forecasting techniques were employed to project murder trends, emphasising the urgency of targeted interventions in high-risk areas. Recommendations include implementing community-specific policing, conflict resolution programs, and economic support initiatives to address root causes. This research contributes a predictive perspective on crime trends, advocating for data-driven approaches to enhance public safety and reduce violence across diverse socio-economic landscapes in South Africa.