Abstract
The Eta and Aviation (AVN) driving models of HY-SPLIT are evaluated by means of a case study of the sulphur fire plume at Somerset West (34° 04’ S, 18° 48’ E) which caused sulphur dioxide (SO2) air pollution over Macassar on 16 - 17 December 1995. The HY-SPLIT model is verified by comparing it with the Lagrangian kinematic trajectory (LKT)model. Plume dispersions and depositions of the HY-SPLIT model for the Eta and AVN driving models are compared with Eta model winds. Eta model winds for a grid point close to the fire are verified against radiosonde data and synoptic observations. Results indicate that the finer-resolution regional Eta model has the higher accuracy.
Highlights
The HY-SPLIT (HYbrid-Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) model is a complete system for computing simple trajectories to complex dispersion and deposition simulations using a particle approach
The model is driven by a Eulerian General Circulation Model such as the National Centres for Environmental Prediction’s (NCEP) Eta numerical weather prediction model in daily operation at the South African Weather Bureau (SAWB) (Poolman et al, 1994)
A regional specialised EER system has been developed at the SAWB (Vermeulen, 1997) for World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Region 1 (Africa) which uses an Aviation model (AVN) with a horizontal resolution of 100 km and 28 sigma levels to drive HY-SPLIT
Summary
The HY-SPLIT (HYbrid-Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) model is a complete system for computing simple trajectories to complex dispersion and deposition simulations using a particle approach. A regional specialised EER system has been developed at the SAWB (Vermeulen, 1997) for WMO Region 1 (Africa) which uses an Aviation model (AVN) with a horizontal resolution of 100 km and 28 sigma levels to drive HY-SPLIT. A case study of the release of a gas such as SO2 in South Africa will help to establish long-range atmospheric transport modelling as a useful weather prediction product for EER in South Africa as well as internationally. In this paperlongrangerefers to the synoptic spatial scale, and predictions are done for a lead-time of 48 hours. All times quotes are in South African Standard Time
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