A locally explained heterogeneity model for examining wetland disparity

Abstract

ABSTRACTIdentifying the factors influencing wetland variations is crucial for understanding the relationship of climate change with wetland conservation and management. The wetland distribution is associated with multiple variables, and the interactions among these variables are complex. In this study, we aim to explore an interpretable and quantitative analysis of factors related to wetland spatiotemporal variations on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). By combining SHapley Additive exPlanations with a spatially stratified heterogeneity model, we propose a locally explained stratified heterogeneity (LESH) model that well reveals the effects of multiple variable interactions on the spatiotemporal variations of wetlands. The results show that topographic variables are the most important variables related to the spatial distribution of wetlands on the TP, and climatic variables are the most relevant factors for the increase in the wetland area on the TP from 2015 to 2019. In addition, the interactions among multiple variables strongly influence wetlands on the TP. Among them, when other geographic variables interact with the evaporation variable, its explanatory power on wetland distribution is significantly increased. Knowledge of wetland distribution determinants can help us understand the evolution of wetlands and the impacts of climate change on wetland variations.